Climate Migration drives Ethno-political Strife
Climate migration, driven by the Southward advance of the Sahara Desert in West Africa, is putting massive pressures on growing populations and driving disturbing conflicts over issues beyond just resource and land conflicts:
"Due to climate change and the dramatic draught in D the northern Sahelian zone of West Africa in the 1970s and 1980s, the Sahara desert has moved at least 130 kilometers south, thereby swallowing the northern parts of many countries in the region. Many research reports indicate that the desert continues to move south at the rate of five kilometers a year.
Sources:West Africa Insight, Centre for Democracy and Development, Vol 1, No 9, September 2010, page 11.
Growth in India’s slum population…or census accuracy
“Even though India is putting up impressive growth numbers, an expert committee formed to estimate a slum population figure said that the slum population will stand at 93.06 million by next year. This is an increase of 23% since 2001. The estimate in 2001 for the year 2010 was 75.26 million. The minister for housing and urban poverty alleviation said this figure wasn’t surprising due to the increase in urbanization.”
MENA's aging population could lead to difficult choices
Increasing life expectancy is one of the major indicators of growth and development. The Arab world has seen an increase of 16 years since the mid 70's, but unfortunately have not planned accordingly with needed infrastructure and social services to support a larger retired population. Additionally, traditional family networks are being replaced western style nuclear families making government provided social services more important.
Sources:SFG Middle East Monitor, Sept 2010
demographic window of opportunity: http://rfsearchlight.clearsignals.org/node/142
Fisman, Raymond, Edward Miguel. 2008. Economic Gangsters. Princeton University Press.
MENA's demographic window of opportunity
MENA's population is currently about 50% below 24 years of age. By 2030 this youth bulge is expected to shift to constitute MENA's working age population. By 2030, 50% of MENA's population will be from 24 to 65 years of age. MENA will be in a special 'window of opportunity' wherein there will be an even split between working population and dependents. After 2030 the dependency ratio is expected to rise again.
Sources:SFG Middle East Monitor, Sept 2010: